GREEN GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE DECARBONIZATION GOAL FOR CHILE : REPORT ON THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF IMPLEMENTING CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION POLICIES
THE WORLD BANK, ECONOMIC AND SECTOR WORK, SEPTEMBER 2020
The study presents the results of model simulations showing the macroeconomic effects of the implementation of key climate change mitigation policies in Chile, aimed to reduce CO2eq emissions in accordance with Chilean latest NDC and a target of zero net CO2eq emissions by 2050. By using a multi-sector macroeconomic general equilibrium model, the study shows that the implementation of the proposed policy package could have an overall positive impact on the economy both in the short and long run, as measured by the effect on economic indicators such as GDP, and ensures decoupling of growth from fossil fuel use. Per the analysis, the expected level of GDP by 2050 could increase up to 4,4 percent when compared to the baseline scenario, which corresponds to a higher rate of growth of 0.13 p.p. Main contribution to GDP is expected from increased private consumption and investment, with an estimated 2.4 and 1.7 percent respectively. Since positive economic and financial implications could arise from the implementation of the proposed mitigation package, the unsolicited participation of the private sector could be expected and enhanced. Remaining questions and discussions from the study relate to limitations for the uptake of mitigation measures sooner than long term scenarios. The study evaluated the macroeconomic impact of implementing a mitigation package aligned with the achievement of the recent updated Chilean NDC and committed zero net CO2eq emissions by 2050.
DATOS TERRITORIALES PARA LA GESTIÓN DE LA PANDEMIA: EL CASO DEL COVID-19 EN BOLIVIA
REVISTA LATINOAMERICANA DE DESARROLLO ECONÓMICO LAJED NO. 34, AVAILABLE ONLINE, AUGUST 2020
We estimate a COVID vulnerability index in order to characterize all Bolivian municipalities with regard to their structural conditions and their sanitary capacity facing the pandemic. The municipal disaggregation of the index becomes a relevant source of information when prioritizing the demands of the epidemic. For example, it can help guide the distribution of tests, protective equipment, and vaccines so as to reduce the levels of contagion and deaths while also minimizing the economic costs incurred. The index is constructed based on three main dimensions: i) Risk of propagation, ii) Underlying health situation, and iii) Response capacity. Among the main results, stands out the fact that 60% of the municipalities belonging to the highest decile of vulnerability are the most populous municipalities
JOURNAL OF POLICY MODELLING. AVAILABLE ONLINE 4 OCTOBER 2017.
This paper studies mining productivity in Chile by relying on two indicators: measure of the total factor productivity (TFP) using the traditional Solow methodology, and labor productivity. Since 2000, we found a decrease in TFP, explained mainly by the participation of capital as well as diverse factor adjustments to labor and capital inputs. Average labor productivity also decreases 42% from 1999 to 2010, a decrease explained by four determinants: real mining wages, electricity prices, copper prices and mineral grade. Since 2010, average labor productivity has increased 30%, and there is also an opportunity for additional improvement by reducing energy costs as well as by aligning productivity and labor performances.
ENERGIES 2015, 8(4), 2674-2700; DOI:10.3390/EN8042674
This paper aims to analyse the economy-wide implications of a carbon tax applied on the Chilean electricity generation sector. In order to analyse the macroeconomic impacts, both an energy sectorial model and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model have been used. During the year 2014 a carbon tax of 5 US$/tCO2e was approved in Chile. This tax and its increases (10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 US$/tCO2e) are evaluated in this article. The results show that the effectiveness of this policy depends on some variables which are not controlled by policy makers, for example, non-conventional renewable energy investment cost projections, natural gas prices, and the feasibility of exploiting hydroelectric resources. For a carbon tax of 20 US$/tCO2e, the average annual emission reduction would be between 1.1 and 9.1 million tCO2e. However, the price of the electricity would increase between 8.3 and 9.6 US$/MWh. This price shock would decrease the annual GDP growth rate by a maximum amount of 0.13%.
This paper analyses the Chilean Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) proposal for the mitigation component. The methodological approach and the supporting ambition of a process carried out by the Chilean Government are assessed based on the scientific evidence available and local context. The analysis is developed by representatives of four ministries and a group of 21 researchers from six universities and research centers throughout the country.
CONFERENCES, SEMINARS AND WORKSHOPS
High-income and high-productivity countries have pushed their agenda towards environmental policies. The carbon-leakage hypothesis predicts that these policies will increase emissions in unregulated countries, which typically have low-income and low-productivity. We predict that the productivity differential causes a net positive increase in emissions on global scales. We construct a country-level panel, including emissions and regulations data. We show that, although regulations from high-income countries may decrease their emissions, they also increase the emissions of the average country, causing a net global increase. This result is a call for international coordination and cooperation in order to achieve a sustainable global economy.
This document presents three tools for real-time monitoring of the COVID-19 pandemic with public data available in Bolivia. We use simple models that are easy to replicate and adapt to find predictions of contagions for the department of Bolivia. Our results indicate that, if current conditions are maintained, a national total of approximately 200 thousand confirmed infections is expected in early September. However, Due to the low diagnostic capacity, this estimate underestimates the true number of infections that could easily reach 1 million. Also, we contribute to public policies in the short and medium-term. The main recommendation is the urgent need for reporting, generation, and data dissemination. This investment will not only help control the pandemic but also guide the re-activation of the economic activity with the vital care of the people. UPDATE at www.cov19bolivia.github.io
This paper estimates Codelco's Labor Productivity (LP) and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) by divisions between 2000 and 2016. Ministro Hales and Gabriela Mistral were the divisions with the highest Labor Productivity in 2016, while Salvador was the one with the lowest Labor Productivity. Regarding the TFP, it decreased at a compound average annual rate of 7.1% between 2000 and 2016, while the TFP of Chile's mining industry fell 8.8% annually. Codelco Norte was the division with the highest TFP, with an average decrease of 6.0% while Salvador division was the one with the highest average decrease 24.7%.
This report updates and analyzes the productivity measures of the mining industry in Chile from 1996 to 2016. The metrics used to quantify the national mining productivity correspond to Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and Labor Average Productivity. Using the Solow residual, pure TFP declined 5.8% in 2016, a value that compares with the fall of 6.4% observed in 2015. TFP obtained by adjusting capital and labor by exogenous variables fell 1.4% in 2016, presenting the lowest drop since 2008 (-0.2%). Regarding the Labor Average Productivity, this measure increased 8.7% in 2016, which is explained by the 11% drop in mining employment in the last year. The difference between the results obtained from TPF and the Labor Average Productivity is due to the greater sensitivity of this last metric to variations in mining employment, which showed a significant decrease since 2014
Poverty in Chile has declined significantly since the early 1990s. This has happened both taking the traditional income measure and the new multidimensional poverty methodology. In traditional measurement, the cost of the basket that corresponded to the poverty line is basically determined by the cost of a food basket. In the new multidimensional poverty methodology, other factors are included that are related to vulnerability such as access to education, health, work and social security, housing and networks and social cohesion. Using data from the 2013 Family Budget survey for Chile, this work estimates the energy poverty rate of households in Chile at around 15.7%. Likewise, a compensation to a CO2 tax is presented to the Chilean electricity sector. Targeting in the first four deciles would have a maximum total fiscal cost of 9.8 million dollars while the focus in the first six deciles reaches a maximum of 14.9 million dollars.
Codelco is the main state company in Chile and the largest producer of copper in the world, main reasons to study its productivity. We appreciate the Codelco provision to deliver the necessary information in a timely manner, which complemented with information from the Central Bank, Cochilco, the Mining Council and Sernageomin, among other sources, allowed analyzing and comparing Codelco's productivity with the rest of the industry.
This study shows the development and evolution of two indicators of mining productivity in Chile: First, the measurement of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) using the Solow methodology and then the measurement of average labor productivity and its determinants for the period from 1996 to 2013. There is evidence of a decrease in TFP in the range of 67.6% to 84.7% with respect to the base year 2000. Average labor productivity also decreases from the year 1999 to the year 2010 by 42% and since that year it has risen 30%. The evolution of this last variable is explained by the evolution of capital, the law of ore, the price of copper, wages and the price of energy.
The document presents a quarterly and monthly transformation exercise of the total and regional gross domestic product series of Bolivia, obtaining valuable unpublished information in national accounts available for work in short and medium term forecasting models for the estimation, quantification and design of economic policy in Bolivia. The useful series for quarterly regional GDP at the national level based on 1990 prices. For period Q1: 1980 - Q4: 1990. Similarly, for the period Q1: 1990-Q4: 2006, the series presented by the National Institute of Statistics INE has been used.
The objective of this paper is to generate novel data on total factor productivity (TFP) related to energy-emissions and the accomplishment of INDCs countries. To accomplish this purpose, I am planning to follow three steps: First, using the framework of growth accounting methodology, a panel data model will be estimated showing the statistical significance of energy-emissions contribution to the output growth. Second, I two TFP indicators will be developed. a) Traditional TFP indicator and b) the total factor productivity with energy-emissions (TFP-E) indicator in order to measure productivity associate with CO2 emissions by country. Third, I will estimate the required rate of growth of TFP-E for the accomplishments of INDCs goals until 2030 year stablished by Paris agreement like the peak of emissions
Discontent with old-age pensions is increasing. However, many policy responses have a redistributive impact across generations whose sign and extent is seldom available. This paper argues that this impact should be measured in part by comparing two distributions of consumption in the present: the one for the elderly and the one for those in their prime age. The paper provides first a model that formalizes the argument. It shows that this relative consumption is an important factor, albeit not the only one, in assessing the intergenerational progressiveness of a policy. Next, the paper argues that comparing relative consumption is empirically feasible, despite several challenges that make comparison difficult. The paper presents preliminary comparisons for three countries. The finding for Mexico is robust enough to suggest that it may be progressive to expand PAYG-financed pensions like PAM. In contrast, preliminary results for Colombia suggest a small difference between age groups, so that same policy is likely to create inequality. For Chile, the preliminary finding is that below the 61st percentile of the distribution, prime-age adults have a lower standard of living than the elderly, and that this ordering reverses starting at the 68th percentile. This result is robust. It is used to evaluate a policy proposed in August 2017, which would raise contributory pensions by 20% financed with a new 2% tax on jobs with social security