PUBLICATIONS

GREEN GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE DECARBONIZATION GOAL FOR CHILE : REPORT ON THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF IMPLEMENTING CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION POLICIES

THE WORLD BANK, ECONOMIC AND SECTOR WORK, SEPTEMBER 2020

The study presents the results of model simulations showing the macroeconomic effects of the implementation of key climate change mitigation policies in Chile, aimed to reduce CO2eq emissions in accordance with Chilean latest NDC and a target of zero net CO2eq emissions by 2050. By using a multi-sector macroeconomic general equilibrium model, the study shows that the implementation of the proposed policy package could have an overall positive impact on the economy both in the short and long run, as measured by the effect on economic indicators such as GDP, and ensures decoupling of growth from fossil fuel use. Per the analysis, the expected level of GDP by 2050 could increase up to 4,4 percent when compared to the baseline scenario, which corresponds to a higher rate of growth of 0.13 p.p. Main contribution to GDP is expected from increased private consumption and investment, with an estimated 2.4 and 1.7 percent respectively. Since positive economic and financial implications could arise from the implementation of the proposed mitigation package, the unsolicited participation of the private sector could be expected and enhanced. Remaining questions and discussions from the study relate to limitations for the uptake of mitigation measures sooner than long term scenarios. The study evaluated the macroeconomic impact of implementing a mitigation package aligned with the achievement of the recent updated Chilean NDC and committed zero net CO2eq emissions by 2050.

DATOS TERRITORIALES PARA LA GESTIÓN DE LA PANDEMIA: EL CASO DEL COVID-19 EN BOLIVIA  

REVISTA LATINOAMERICANA DE DESARROLLO ECONÓMICO LAJED NO. 34, AVAILABLE ONLINE, AUGUST 2020

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We estimate a COVID vulnerability index in order to characterize all Bolivian municipalities with regard to their structural conditions and their sanitary capacity facing the pandemic. The municipal disaggregation of the index becomes a relevant source of information when prioritizing the demands of the epidemic. For example, it can help guide the distribution of tests, protective equipment, and vaccines so as to reduce the levels of contagion and deaths while also minimizing the economic costs incurred. The index is constructed based on three main dimensions: i) Risk of propagation, ii) Underlying health situation, and iii) Response capacity. Among the main results, stands out the fact that 60% of the municipalities belonging to the highest decile of vulnerability are the most populous municipalities

COPPER MINING PRODUCTIVITY: LESSONS FROM CHILE 

JOURNAL OF POLICY MODELLING. AVAILABLE ONLINE 4 OCTOBER 2017.

This paper studies mining productivity in Chile by relying on two indicators: measure of the total factor productivity (TFP) using the traditional Solow methodology, and labor productivity. Since 2000, we found a decrease in TFP, explained mainly by the participation of capital as well as diverse factor adjustments to labor and capital inputs. Average labor productivity also decreases 42% from 1999 to 2010, a decrease explained by four determinants: real mining wages, electricity prices, copper prices and mineral grade. Since 2010, average labor productivity has increased 30%, and there is also an opportunity for additional improvement by reducing energy costs as well as by aligning productivity and labor performances.

THE IMPACT OF A CARBON TAX ON THE CHILEAN ELECTRICITY GENERATION SECTOR

ENERGIES 2015, 8(4), 2674-2700; DOI:10.3390/EN8042674

This paper aims to analyse the economy-wide implications of a carbon tax applied on the Chilean electricity generation sector. In order to analyse the macroeconomic impacts, both an energy sectorial model and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model have been used. During the year 2014 a carbon tax of 5 US$/tCO2e was approved in Chile. This tax and its increases (10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 US$/tCO2e) are evaluated in this article. The results show that the effectiveness of this policy depends on some variables which are not controlled by policy makers, for example, non-conventional renewable energy investment cost projections, natural gas prices, and the feasibility of exploiting hydroelectric resources. For a carbon tax of 20 US$/tCO2e, the average annual emission reduction would be between 1.1 and 9.1 million tCO2e. However, the price of the electricity would increase between 8.3 and 9.6 US$/MWh. This price shock would decrease the annual GDP growth rate by a maximum amount of 0.13%.